By Andre Vieira Lobo and Joao Arromatte Caregnato et.al
Global soybean production is viewed as dominated by Brazil, the United States, and, to a lesser extent, Argentina. The three countries typically account for around 80% of global soybean production and 88% of global exports. However, other South American countries have significantly increased soybean production over the past 50 years. Paraguay is one such country. It accounts for less than 3% of global soybean production but has the potential for a larger role in global trade due to heavy export market reliance and highly variable yields.
Soybean in Paraguay
The main soybean crop in Paraguay (referred to as zafra) is planted starting in late August and through early November. Harvest occurs from as early as late December into March. A second smaller soybean crop (referred to as zafriña) can be planted in late January to early February, with harvest from May through July. Soy-corn or corn-soy rotations have become more common but planting consecutive soybean crops continues to occur.
Compared with Brazil, the US, and Argentina, Paraguay accounts for a relatively small share of global soybean production: just under 3% (see Figure 1). Brazil’s production share has trended up, reaching over 35% in recent years while the US share has trended down to around 30%. Argentina’s production share has also declined but has generally remained between 10 and 15% of global production.
Since 1970, soybean production in Paraguay has increased, surpassing 400 million bushels multiple times in recent years (see upper panel of Figure 2). Increases in production have been achieved through increased productivity and acreage expansion.
As shown in the middle panel of Figure 2, soybean acres have increased over time in Paraguay with more rapid increases occurring from the 1990s through the 2000s. Acreage has plateaued at 8.6 to 8.9 million acres (3.5 to 3.6 million hectares) as expansion has slowed considerably in recent years. Industry estimates suggest some potential for additional expansion over time, up to 741,000 acres (300,000 hectares), into the Chaco region of northwestern Paraguay. However, this potential is highly limited by relatively poor soils and lack of existing infrastructure in the region (USDA, 2026).
Soybean yields in Paraguay have trended up through time, with recent yields exceeding 45 bushels per acre in good years (lower panel of Figure 2). Over the past 10 years, average soybean yields have ranged from a high of nearly 47 bushels per acre in 2018 to a low of less than 22 bushels per acre in 2022 under serious drought conditions. Yield potential for the main zafra crop in Paraguay is similar to that of the US and Brazil in good growing seasons. USDA estimates suggest 2025/26 zafra yields could exceed 56 bushels per acre and a total crop of nearly 445 million bushels (12.1 million metric tons) (USDA, 2026).
Source : illinois.edu