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Producers Still Uncommitted On Crop Plans

As planting looms, the nation's largest growers are not committed to key crop inputs for the year. These were findings from the Farmer Speaks research study by Millennium Research and commissioned by J.L.Farmakis, Inc. This research shows a more aggressive cost-cutting approach is being taken after farmers experienced disappointing 2016 results. 
 
 
What level of cost-reduction are growers trying to reach for their 2017 crop? Growers with 1,000 acres or more are the most aggressive acreage group this year, with a 10% reduction. Where are they making cuts? Tied for the number one position with 37% of farmers are changes in crop protection and seed traits. One in four of the respondents for the Farmer Speaks panel indicate they will use a new weed control system this year in corn or soybeans. 
 
Greatest uncertainty on corn products 
 
Among growers who are making changes, corn farmers report more than a 50% change is anticipated for many categories of crop protection products. Also significant is the fact that farmers indicate more than 1,000 acres on their farm remain undecided for herbicides, insecticides and fungicides, as well as seed treatments. With only a matter of weeks remaining before planting, farmers are still considering their options and costs. 
 
Bill Farmakis, President of J.L. Farmakis, Inc. observes "Farmers are rapidly making many changes to squeeze out costs. Our study show farmers are targeting inputs and delaying decisions." Farmakis shares that the number of acres where products are not decided for the season is higher than he recalls from the past. "There are still a great number of farmers, and a great number of acres who are in play," he notes. 
 
Farmers swapping broadleaf soybean herbicides 
 
The panel indicated high awareness of the new broadleaf soybean product offers for 2017 with 65% awareness. Not surprisingly, the growers also indicated increasing interest in soybean traits this year. Farmers with 2,000+ acres are making big changes in inputs and several are waiting to make decisions on crop protection products right up until planting. 
 

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.