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Risk May Be Greater Than Reward For Soybean Growers Looking To Take Advantage Of U.S./China Trade Dispute

There's a perception out there that Canada's soybean industry can only benefit from the trade war brewing between China and the United States.
 
China has threatened to impose a 25 per cent duty on U.S. soybeans.
 
Ron Davidson, the executive director of Soy Canada, cautions that there might be a greater downside for Canada than we realize.
 
"We could export, perhaps, some more soybeans to China, perhaps, at a higher price...The decrease in the U.S. price though affects our whole crop."
 
Davidson says U.S. soybeans not going to China could end up being shipped to other countries that Canada also exports to.
 
Source : Steinbachonline

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.