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Genesus Global Market Report Canada November 2023

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects fewer Canadian pigs to be produced in 2024. The USDA projects that the Canadian swine herd will contract, due in part to decreased domestic processing capacity (Olymel plant closures) and reduced U.S. demand. The reality for the Canadian industry is losses continue, and the USDA’s projection of less pork being produced in Canada next year is not surprising. From all indications, there is next to no new building going on and with Quebec’s buyout of pork producers, Canada’s industry is slated to drop. That is hopeful news for prices for producers across the country. 2024 has the opportunity for the Canadian industry to regain profitably.

Drought across the Canadian Prairies this year has seen grain production fall year-on-year. Canada’s principal field crop production is estimated to have decreased by 13 percent from 97.1 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022-23 to 84.5Mt this season. Total wheat production is estimated at 29.8Mt, down from the third biggest crop on record of 34.3Mt last season. Overall, it was still a significantly better wheat output than the disaster of the 2021-22 drought crop of 22.4Mt. For an industry that has been hammered by high feed costs, this news, despite a drought with decent production, is welcome news.

Plant-based fake meat and lab-grown fake meat are a threat to the pork industry. Plant-based fake meat had a grand entrance into the consumer space with its boy wonder Beyond Meat reaching $235 USD a share in summer 2019 following its IPO. Reality has sunk in since than with its stock sitting around $7 a share and the company scrambling to gain market share. Even though Beyond Meat has struggled it is forecasted by Ernst & Young that the plant-based fake meat industry is to reach $139 billion USD in sales by 2035 from $16.5 billion in 2021. The worldwide pork market was valued at $255 billion USD in 2022. Lab-grown fake meat is in its very early stages and issues including cost and scaling up its production remain major hinderances. The lab-grown fake meat worldwide market size was valued around $221.47 million USD in 2022 and forecasted to reach $2 billion USD in 2035. It is still a very small component of the food sector but with an expected growth of 800 percent over the next 10+ years it is something that the pork industry should not ignore. It is also beneficial to the pork industry when a country bans the production of lab-grown fake meat as Italy did just last week to protect its agricultural industry and Italy’s traditional culinary cuisine. The law also prohibits the use of the word’s “bacon”, “salami” etc. to describe plant-based fake meat products which has also been made into law in France and Texas and many other U.S. states. Canada should take note of this legislation and do the same thing.

Source : Swine Web

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