From iGrow.org
According to the May 18, 2017 National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's long-range outlook, the last couple of weeks of May are more likely to stay on the cooler side of average.
"Rainfall is also projected to taper off and South Dakota will turn drier again for the rest of the month," said Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension State Climatologist.
Edwards added that the new climate outlook for June 2017 is uncertain - given this cool and dry start.
"Most climate computer models are showing a transition to warmer conditions in June, specifically in the south and east," Edwards said.
The same models are also indicating a movement towards a wetter pattern that will carry through July and August.
"This leaves the month of June leaning neither particularly cool nor warm and neither wet nor dry," she explained. "It appears as if sometime mid-June, conditions will turn wetter and warmer for most of South Dakota."
She added that this up-and-down pattern has affected the state for the last several months as we swing from one side to the other of the jet stream's path. "For example, in February, very warm temperatures melted our snowpack early, followed by many fluctuations this spring, most recently with snow over the last few days," Edwards said.
Abnormally Dry Conditions
Wetter conditions are eagerly awaited by those in north central South Dakota, which are below average in rainfall.
"As of May 22, all northern counties, from Perkins to Roberts, are reporting less than 50 percent of average rainfall in the last 30 days," Edwards said.
Rainfall totals for the week of May 15 struggled to get over an inch in many of these areas.
"Climatologically speaking, in May and June we average .50 to .75 inches of rain a week for most of the state. Deficits in moisture can grow quickly with just a couple of dry weeks in this wettest part of the year," she explained.
In recent weeks, the U.S. Drought Monitor has expanded Abnormally Dry conditions for north central South Dakota.
"Impacts of dry and windy conditions can grow rapidly this time of year and climatologists and SDSU Extension staff will be watching this area closely for worsening conditions," Edwards said.
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