Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of October 15th 2023

Oct 12, 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 15, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. Tuesday’s USDA Crop Progress Report showed (October 10) harvest progress in corn and beans took a solid jump from last week’s report. Corn harvest came in at 34%, up 11% from last week, and 3% higher than the 5-year average. Soybeans harvest is significantly ahead of corn, as it is 43% complete, up 20% from last week and 6% higher than the 5-year average. Harvesting activities are set to take a brief pause as rains will sweep through the upper Midwest until Friday. The next report will be released on Monday, October 16th.

2. Next week’s reports include the USDA Grains inspected for export report on Monday, October 16th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, October 18th, and the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday, October 19th. There was a mistake in the recent grains inspected for export report as there was a double count for soybeans and wheat inspected at U.S. Pacific Northwest ports. The revised figures for the same week are: USDA Weekly Corn Inspections at 550,585 MT, below the expected 740,000 MT. USDA Weekly Soybean Inspections came in at 1,036,223 MT, surpassing the anticipated 660,000 MT. USDA Weekly Wheat Inspections were at 265,242 MT, falling short of the projected 400,000 MT.

3. The U.S. drought monitor map saw no improvement from last week, with the Midwest still seeing significant levels of drought. Iowa saw no change in any category of drought besides a 0.07% increase in D3, which means the state remains 100% affected by drought. The good news is, there will be rains throughout the upper Midwest until Friday, which should help relieve some of the drought seen in those states.

4. Next week on Friday, October 20th, we will have the monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report. Numbers are still below 2022, as cattle and calves on feed for slaughter sit at 11.1 million head, 2% below September 2022. As well, placements in feedlots in August totaled 2 million head 5% below 2022.

5. U.S. CPI was released this week, coming in above the expected 0.3% at 0.4% for the month. Year-over-year change came in at 3.7%, which is also above expectations of 3.6%. On Tuesday, October 17th, Stats Canada will release the September inflation data. In Canada, the CPI rose 4.0% year-over-year in August, a significant increase from the 3.3% in July. Seeing a reversal of this upward trend would be welcome, but...

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Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.