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U.S. farmers start harvest

U.S. farmers start harvest

Predicting the yield will be tough, one producer said

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Some U.S. corn producers are preparing to bring out their combines.

About 5 percent of the national corn crop is in the dough stage, the USDA’s latest Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin said on July 23. That figure is down from 16 percent last year.

On a state level, about 58 percent of the corn in Texas is in the dough stage. That number is the highest of the 18 documented states.

But some fields in the state are even further along, said Aaron Martinka, a farmer from Austin, Texas.

“In my area, farmers are maybe a week away from starting harvest,” he told Farms.com. “In fact, I might even start to harvest some acres this afternoon.”

Like several American farmers, Martinka’s season was full of rain and delays.

His crops still show signs of the late start, he said.

“We were really wet in the spring, so we have a lot of variability in the field,” he said. “I’m hours away from starting harvest and just don’t know how to categorize the crop. (My thoughts are) full of question marks and I would imagine farmers nationwide are thinking the same way.”

The U.S. soybean crop is also entering its next development stage.

Around 7 percent of national soybean acres are setting pods, the USDA said. That figure is down from 41 percent in 2018.

The soybean crop in Louisiana has set 72 percent of its pods, which is the most progress among the 18 documented states.

Only producers in South Dakota and Michigan have yet to reach this stage in at least some of their fields.

Winter wheat harvest continues across the U.S.

About 69 percent of winter wheat is in the bin, the USDA said. That figure is down from 79 percent last year.

Only Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas have completed their wheat harvest.

Farmers in South Dakota and Montana haven’t combined any winter wheat acres yet, the USDA said.


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Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.