Economists Forecast Hog Prices Following December USDA Quarterly Report

Jan 10, 2022

By Jennifer Shike

Three economists shared their forecasted prices for the year ahead in the Dec. 23 announcement of the Dec. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.

Using the Carcass Price National Weighted Average, David Miller, an economist with Decision Innovation Solutions, quoted:

• first quarter of 2022 at $83-86

• second quarter of 2022 at $88-92

• third quarter of 2022 at $88-92

• fourth quarter of 2022 at $78-84

Ron Plain, University of Missouri Extension emeritus, used the Iowa-Minnesota Based Carcass Price Negotiated Sales to quote his prices. He forecast:

• first quarter of 2022 at $69

• second quarter of 2022 at $82

• third quarter of 2022 at $83

• fourth quarter of 2022 at $68

Bob Brown, an independent analyst, said he used the CME equivalent carcass basis. He forecast:

• first quarter of 2022 at $82.50

• second quarter of 2022 at $91

• third quarter of 2022 at $87.50

• fourth quarter of 2022 at $73

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Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.