U.S. Hay Stocks Down Year-Over-Year

May 19, 2017

USDA released the monthly Crop Production report by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on May 10. The crop report covered commodities mostly unrelated to the livestock sectors, but did contain the May 1, 2017 hay stocks. The report is based on a NASS survey of producers. U.S. hay stocks for May 1st give a carryover number as of that date which marks the national transition to a new hay crop-year. Besides national totals, stocks by state are reported. The major users of hay are the U.S. beef cowherd, feedlots, and dairies.

Nationally, as of May 1, 2017, U.S. hay stocks were 24.4 million tons. Stocks were down 750,000 tons (3%) year-over-year. Even though stocks were the smallest since May 1, 2014 (19.1 million tons), they remained plentiful. NASS does a producer survey on their hay stocks twice each year, as of December 1 and May 1. U.S. winter hay usage (disappearance from December 1, 2016 until May 1 of this year) was less than expected earlier this year.

Still, in several regions, early winter feeding requirements were above levels of recent years and lower hay prices encouraged use. Of course, yearover-year cowherd increases supported hay consumption, too. Overall hay disappearance this past winter was the largest since the time period from December 1, 2009 to May 1, 2010 and the year-over-year increase was 2.3%, while the number of roughage consuming animal units increased 2.0% year-overyear.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.