This land is our land, this land is your land

Nov 08, 2021

We’re number one in US farmland investment, but Canada doesn’t know what foreign powers own what or how much in Canadian ag real estate.
Conversely, its neighbours down south in the US know who owns its ag lands.

A recently published USDA Farm Service Agency report “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Agricultural Land” noted that through end of year 2019, foreign investors now hold about 2.7 percent of US ag lands.

According to the report, the US has just under 900 million acres of total farmland and that private entities (not states or the federal government) own and manage roughly 445-million acres of forestland.

Statista.com shows that US farmland sits at approximately 896-million acres, down from 2014 levels of 913-million acres.

As of 2019 data—the most recent results available—the 2.7 percent of foreign investment in American ag land consists of least 35.2-million acres, or approximately the size of the state of Iowa.

Canada remains the largest foreign investor in the US ag land, owning about 10.5-million acres, while the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom own a combined 11.7-million acres.

Other countries have a hand in the remaining 13.6-million acres, such as China accounting for just 192,000 acres of farmland.

Data provided by StatsCan shows that from 2016 through 2020, Canadian farm land and building values per acre have continued to increase to an average of $3,393, with Ontario leading the way at a value of $11,815 value per acre.

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain under the national average, but still have steadily increased over the indicated five-year period, currently sitting at $2,999, $1,595, and $2,269 value per acre, respectively.

Attempting to determine foreign investment numbers in Canadian ag lands is apparently a difficult proposition—it’s indeterminate—but indications are that Canada has made it more difficult for foreign investors to land-grab due to heavy restrictions.

A survey of farmers in southern Ontario in 2013 showed about one percent of land rented by them was foreign owned. As of 2021, unlike the US, Canada has no firm national data regarding foreign investment in Canadian ag property.

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.