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Feed Outlook, October 2019

The third survey-based estimate for the 2019/20 corn crop lowered harvested acres by 200,000 and raised yield 0.2-bushel per acre, lowering the crop projection by 19.8 million bushels this month. However, supplies declined 350.8 million bushels due to lower carryin, reaching 15,944 million bushels. On the demand side, an increase in feed and residual partially offsets decreases in exports and food, seed and industrial (FSI) use, for a net 90-million-bushel decline in total use to 14,015 million bushels. Tightening supplies and observed prices to date caused the projected average for the season average price received by farmers to gain $0.20 per bushel to $3.80.
The slow pace of U.S. corn sales and shipments in recent months reveal the country’s weak price competitiveness relative to other major corn exporters. U.S. corn exports for the October-September international trade year are projected 3.5 million tons lower. With reduced supplies and high corn output by competitors this year, the United States is expected to lose its export market share. This month, corn exports are projected higher for Brazil and Russia.
Source : USDA