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Good Harvest Progress Last Week

The provincial Farm Production Advisor in Steinbach says area farmers took advantage of the warm weather last week to get a lot of crop into the bin. Earl Bargen says most of the canola and spring cereals are now in the bin.
 
"There's going to be the odd field still out there but I think the guys are wrapping up fast. I also saw the start of some of the soybeans coming on off on Friday and Saturday before the rain hit here on Sunday. That would definitely be the stuff that was planted earlier and maybe some of the earlier maturing lines that are out there."
 
Bargen says he's hearing early soybean yields in the range of 25 to 35 bushels per acre which he considers good after the year we've had.
 
Meanwhile, he says corn is close to full maturity but producers will need some dry weather for them to dry down for harvest.
 
"The fields that I monitor, the milk line is basically done and I'm starting to see that black line. That's telling me that it's physiologically mature. The rest is kind of dependent on the kind of weather we get and how fast the rest of it can dry down. If we could have held onto last week's weather for another week or two, I'm sure it would have sped things up. As far as sunflowers, I think they're kind of in that similar physiologically mature stage, or getting close."
 
Bargen adds winter wheat seeding is continuing but producers are getting near the end of that window. He notes one field that was seeded about two weeks ago is now in the two leaf stage.
 

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.