Abstract: Optimising Response to an Introduction of African Swine Fever in Wild Pigs

Abstract: Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly).