By Francisco Alarcón
Rising agricultural input costs are reshaping how food is produced. While the effects are not always immediately visible, they ultimately ripple across the entire agrifood chain. Beyond the pressure on producers, this situation exposes a structural vulnerability: the dependence of agricultural systems on complex, concentrated, and fragile global supply chains.
Within that system, certain strategic trade corridors concentrate disproportionate risk, a localized disruption can trigger impacts at a global scale. Key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy and fertilizer trade flows, act as true bottlenecks of the global agrifood system. When these corridors come under pressure, the impact is not limited to energy markets: it transfers to fertilizer costs, shapes planting decisions, and ultimately affects food availability. In a context where more than half of international agricultural trade depends on these critical routes, even partial disruptions can amplify volatility and push prices up globally.
Today, much of the nitrogen that sustains agricultural production depends on international trade, making millions of producers vulnerable to external disruptions. Up to 1.8 billion people depend on fertilizers exposed to supply interruptions, either through direct imports or their link to the natural gas required to produce them. In this context, decisions made far from the field end up directly influencing what gets planted, how much fertilizer gets applied, and how much food reaches the market.
Click here to see more...