By Julio Bellodi Cortarelli and Grant Gardner
Brazil’s rapid expansion in corn-based ethanol production has important implications for U.S. corn markets. While Brazil has long been the world’s second-largest ethanol producer (RFA, 2025), it has historically relied on sugarcane. By 2024, roughly 20% of Brazil’s ethanol output came from corn (EPE, 2025), driven largely by expansion of the safrinha crop in the Center-West.
As more Brazilian corn is pulled into ethanol production and feed use, export availability may fluctuate. In some years, this could ease competition with U.S. corn, but it also introduces more volatility into global supply dynamics. For U.S. producers, that makes these trends worth watching. Importantly, corn is not simply replacing sugarcane one-for-one in Brazil’s ethanol sector. Rather, it is helping expand total ethanol production, especially in the Center-West, while sugarcane remains the dominant feedstock nationally.
One key distinction is how we measure this growth. The 20% figure reflects actual ethanol production. Figure 1 shows processing capacity, the maximum volume mills are designed to handle, not what they necessarily use each year.
Safrinha corn is planted after soybeans, which gives ethanol mills more flexibility throughout the year. Unlike sugarcane, which must be processed shortly after harvest, corn can be stored. That allows mills to better manage input costs and production timing and has supported the rapid growth in corn ethanol production.
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